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Knowledge on the colonization process is important to understand and project future species distributions. The classic method to quantify colonization rates is time-consuming, as it requires recording infrequent colonization events during extensive, repeated surveys.
We present the novel ‘dating-based approach’ that requires one complete survey of species occurrence and estimates of subpopulation ages to back-date colonization events. These data allow statistical reconstruction of a virtual, repeated survey to estimate colonization rates in response to environmental covariates or connectivity.
With only 30% of survey effort, the dating-based approach provided similar estimates of rate and distance of dispersal of a moss metapopulation as the classic approach relying on long-term surveys. Projections of the number of colonization events during the next 100 years differed by only 2.3% (95%-credible interval: [-1.9%; 7.1%]) between methods.
The dating-based approach is applicable across spatial scales and promises enhancing species distribution models with urgently needed quantitative disp
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SND-ID: SND 1073
Description:
Knowledge on the colonization process is important to understand and project future species distributions. The classic method to quantify colonization rates is time-consuming, as it requires recording infrequent colonization events during extensive, repeated surveys.
We present the novel ‘dating-based approach’ that requires one complete survey of species occurrence and estimates of subpopulation ages to back-date colonization events. These data allow statistical reconstruction of a virtual, repeated survey to estimate colonization rates in response to environmental covariates or connectivity.
With only 30% of survey effort, the dating-based approach provided similar estimates of rate and distance of dispersal of a moss metapopulation as the classic approach relying on long-term surveys. Projections of the number of colonization events during the next 100 years differed by only 2.3% (95%-credible interval: [-1.9%; 7.1%]) between methods.
The dating-based approach is applicable across spatial scales and promises enhancing species distribution models with urgently needed quantitative disp
Language:
Swedish
Time period(s) investigated:
1997 — 2010
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Geographic location: Sweden
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Swedish Research Council —2012-3760
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Version 1.0:
2018-11-30
doi:10.5878/6xjf-ma84
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Citation:
Tord Snäll (2018). Colonisation-extinction data for the epiphytic bryophyte Neckera pennata. Swedish National Data Service. Version 1.0. https://doi.org/10.5878/6xjf-ma84
Time period(s) investigated:
1997 — 2010
Variables:
37