Creator/Principal investigator(s)
Description
Knowledge on the colonization process is important to understand and project future species distributions. The classic method to quantify colonization rates is time-consuming, as it requires recording infrequent colonization events during extensive, repeated surveys.
We present the novel ‘dating-based approach’ that requires one complete survey of species occurrence and estimates of subpopulation ages to back-date colonization events. These data allow statistical reconstruction of a virtual, repeated survey to estimate colonization rates in response to environmental covariates or connectivity.
With only 30% of survey effort, the dating-based approach provided similar estimates of rate and distance of dispersal of a moss metapopulation as the classic approach relying on long-term surveys. Projections of the number of colonization events during the next 100 years differed by only 2.3% (95%-credible interval: [-1.9%; 7.1%]) between methods.
The dating-based approach is applicable across spatial scales and promises enhancing species distribution models with urgently needed quantitative disp
Subject area
Keywords
Responsible department/unit
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Creator/Principal investigator(s)
Identifiers
SND-ID: SND 1073
Description
Knowledge on the colonization process is important to understand and project future species distributions. The classic method to quantify colonization rates is time-consuming, as it requires recording infrequent colonization events during extensive, repeated surveys.
We present the novel ‘dating-based approach’ that requires one complete survey of species occurrence and estimates of subpopulation ages to back-date colonization events. These data allow statistical reconstruction of a virtual, repeated survey to estimate colonization rates in response to environmental covariates or connectivity.
With only 30% of survey effort, the dating-based approach provided similar estimates of rate and distance of dispersal of a moss metapopulation as the classic approach relying on long-term surveys. Projections of the number of colonization events during the next 100 years differed by only 2.3% (95%-credible interval: [-1.9%; 7.1%]) between methods.
The dating-based approach is applicable across spatial scales and promises enhancing species distribution models with urgently needed quantitative disp
Language
Swedish
Copyright
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/2041210x
Time period(s) investigated
1997 — 2010
Geographic spread
Geographic location: Sweden
Unit of analysis
Time Method
Sampling procedure
Funding
Swedish Research Council — Ref. 2012-3760
Subject area
Keywords
Singer A, Bradter U, Fabritius H, Snäll T. In press. Dating past colonization events to project future species distributions. Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
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Version 1.0
2018-11-30
https://doi.org/10.5878/6xjf-ma84
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Copyright
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/2041210x
Suggested citation
Creator/Principal investigator(s)
Data format / data structure
Numeric
Text
Time period(s) investigated
1997 — 2010
Variables
37